Considering his QB2 ADP, Mahomes was one of the biggest fantasy busts at the position last season. He finished at a career-low QB12, but that doesn't do justice to the situation. In the first six games, he had a 6:8 TD:INT and averaged less than 14 fantasy points per game, 24th among QBs. He recovered to post a 20:3 TD:INT in his last 10 games, but even in that span he had five games with no more than 16 fantasy points. Only four times all season did he top 20 points. A lack of downfield passing made fantasy life tough for Mahomes. Just 7.1 percent of his attempts traveled beyond 20 yards, 33rd of 36 qualified QBs. Only 26.0 percent even went past 10 yards (34th), and only Tua Tagovailoa threw behind the line of scrimmage at a higher rate than Mahomes (26.9 percent). The result was a career-low 6.3-yard average target depth (34th) and a career-low 6.8 YPA (26th). In fairness, Mahomes' downfield options were limited. Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown combined for six games played; rookie Xavier Worthy had one of the highest rates in the league for WR screens; and 35-year-old Travis Kelce doesn't get up the seam like he used to. Better health will help this season, but if the majority of his attempts are going to come within five yards of the line of scrimmage, he needs to get much more efficient, i.e., a higher completion rate (67.5, 10th) and more yards per completion (10.0, 31st), or he needs something like 650 attempts. Otherwise, it's hard to see how he gets back in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
