I'm about to over pay for D. Monty. Change my mind
Also watch the tape tho and see he does very well with bad blocking. Ranked bottom of league in blocking the last 2 yrs. Id say he did really well
Great catcher as well. 0% drop rate in college
https://sleeper.app/draft/nfl/445815846086897664
Don’t overpay... never overpay. However I really like Monty, think his ceiling is a RB1 not 2 as mentioned above (don’t @ me with he’s not a top 12 RB, I know he’s not) but look at what he is and what he’s going to be asked to do. He is a guy who will get what’s blocked for him and fall forward meaning very few negative or short yardage plays. He’s their Big back who will handle goal line opportunities, if the bears continue to score like they have in recent years that should be an easy 5-6 short TD runs. He will also be on the field for the majority of snaps with Cohen spelling him on occasion and lining up in 2 RB sets. So he will get quite a few looks in the passing game, maybe 75 targets for 50 receptions? That gives even more opportunity. Now what will his final line look like, it’s hard to say but his floor I think is in the range of 200 carries, 30 receptions 1000 all purpose yards and 6 TD’s? That would’ve been about RB28 last year, or a good RB3.... his ceiling tho is Jordan Howard’s workload plus passing work let’s say 250 carries 70 receptions 1700 yards and 12 TD’s?? That would be the RB6 last year obviously this would be a crazy breakout and it’s probably not too likely. What do I think his final stat line looks like? 220 carries 45 receptions 1300 yards and 8 TD’s sounds about right. That would make him a fringe RB1/2 12-15 overall range... but that’s just my thoughts.
When I mentioned his ceiling as an RB2 I meant he's never going to be an RB1 talent; not that he'd never put up RB1 numbers. He's definitely in a good situation. Opportunity will always trump talent for a fantasy RB. If Cohen gets injured Montgomery becomes the primary pass catcher. If Davis gets injured, he eats up almost all of the goal line work. That's going to significantly impact Montgomery's end of season numbers. I think your estimates are pretty fair, but I'd lean the likely scenario more towards the lower end. The problem with not being an elite talent in his situation is that role players like Davis are going to eat into the pie. Davis is a much better running back than Cunningham last season, which is part of the reason that the 3rd RB for CHI had so little work.
I’d normally agree that Davis could eat into his work but I don’t typically see that when the starting back is getting the job done. Like the Jets have used multiple backs for years because none were producing consistently. But I think if Monty is averaging over 4.5 YPC Davis doesn’t see the field much at all
Hmm, we'll see. I've always liked Davis a lot more than the average fan, so perhaps I'm overrating him
I liked him too but I think the drafting Monty is his demise sadly. I bought Davis everywhere before the draft
Lets not forget the fact that Davis cant stay healthy
That has been his bane up to this point, he seems to stay healthy as long as he's not logging starter reps, though
Which falls in DMs favor. Im happy 175 to 200 carries yr 1 with 20 to 30 receptions. Thats a good yr for a rookie. But i honestly believe he will eat into Cohens reps as well
Montgomery will be a stud. Not Ezekiel Elliot stud (nobody is except for a select few). His tape says it all, amazing balance, vision & shiftiness. The breakaway speed narrative is overblown. That rarely matters in the NFL. Yes, it is a plus, but no it is not a staple in a players effectiveness. Not everyone can break 4 tackles and then out run the DB for a TD like Saquon can.