“Chiefs RBs coach expects 'big jump' for Williams https://t.co/rZkdqHqzvo”
@TrumpTwitterAdvisor in games where Williams had 14+ touches last year, he had 13.9+ Fantasy points, with an average over 18 FPPG in full PPR. Since 2015, there have been 9 RBs drafted in the first round. Only 2/9 of these RBs have had less than 14 touches per game in their rookie year, that being Rashaad penny with 6.7, and McCaffery with 12.3. The average of all 9 is 17.7. If you believe CEH is a better back than Damien Williams, the data leads us to believe in the odds that CEH is a better pick than Williams, because he doesn’t have to be a 20+ touch guy. He just has to have more touches, anywhere from 14-18 will be enough. And we already saw Williams get benched for LeSean McCoy. Hard to believe he’ll have 10+ touches per game in the second half of the season
Who is CEH ?
CEH isn't worth his current redraft ADP in yahoo or ffc. He may be a league winner late in the season, but if you use early draft equity on him you may not even make the playoffs. Your top 5 picks have to hit or your early season gets beat to death. Great Best ball play though.
@TheProctologist as someone who drafted AB in the third last year and won the championship I respectfully disagree. (Though I got very lucky)
@MeerFrank - "Very Lucky" being the key words. In redraft using VBD principals your first 5 picks should match the draft capital spent. Rounds 6-10 are where you win your league. For example I won last year also, but I didn't get lucky. I just spent 8th round capital on Austin Eckler and skated through the season.
@TheProctologist i agree his adp is too high, but since Williams adp is too low, if you’re on a keep league (like I am) taking both of them could be incredible. Then you’d have Williams for however long he’s a starter, and could keep CEH at his current adp pick, which if he is the starter next year, would be ridiculous
@TheProctologist on the note of the “first 5 rounds theory” I’m guessing that refers to a 12 team league? What about an 8 team league? Is it more like your first 6/7 picks then needs to match draft capital?
@Sleeeeepy where is penny in that list?
@Sleeeeepy where is Sony?
@Grimsyzz - I was speaking about a 10 team league. 12 it would be your first 4 rounds . I have never really drafted or mock drafted an 8 team league, but I would say probably 6 rounds because I typically use a TOP 50 - 60 player benchmark as my mandatory "can't miss" strategy. And unless you just get sniped it typically gives you 2 RB's 2WR's and a QB /TE/Quality FLEX. If you stick to tried and true VBD principals and positional scarcity charting, you tend to fair pretty well against week to week competiton. The only thing that effs your season is major injuries to one of those key 5 or 6 players early in the year.
Remember, unless you have "smartest guy in the room syndrome" you typically play your most consistent studs 93.333% of the season (14 out of 15 weeks in head to head) So hitting those 5 picks is incredibly valuable to a winning season.
You aren't trying to beat every team every week in HTH, just one team.
If they are this much in love with DW then he’s obviously going to get first, and second crack at the majority of the carries
Clyde the glyde will be a monster in this system...but THIS YEAR, if DW stays healthy, then Clyde is a lottery ticket...someone you stash and keep an eye on hoping for an injury all season
@dagov1946 we also saw Williams take the roll back late in the year when it mattered after his rib injury. You know nothing if that is what you base it off. Watch how well Williams preformed in the super bowl. He will have first crack and maybe a few 2nd. More likely to see a dule threat by week 4 ish.